2025 Asset Review: Why Did Bitcoin Significantly Underperform Gold and US Stocks?
Original Article Title: "2025 Asset Retrospective: The Value Discrepancy Between the AI Singularity and Entropy Increase, Why Bitcoin Will Significantly Underperform Gold and US Stocks"
Original Article Author: XinGPT, Cryptocurrency KOL
Many people, when observing Bitcoin's performance in 2025, fall into a simple price comparison trap, failing to understand why it has underperformed the US stock market led by Nvidia, and even lagged behind the traditional safe-haven asset gold.
From a high-dimensional perspective, this is actually a problem rooted in physics and information theory. Price is merely a facade; the underlying energy flow and information density are what truly matter.
1. The Crowding Effect of Energy Arbitrage: The Shift of Compute Power Hegemony
In Musk's logic, value is often tied to energy conversion efficiency. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has been the only machine capable of massively converting energy into a digital scarce asset, which is a form of thermodynamically anchored value.
However, in 2024 and 2025, an extremely dominant competitor emerged: Generative Artificial Intelligence.
The core driver of the US stock market now is not fiat currency inflation but the exponential increase in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) brought about by AI. When tech giants invest billions of dollars in building data centers, they are essentially seizing global electricity quotas.
At the current stage, the economic value added by each unit of electricity used to train the next generation of large models or drive high-performance computing chips temporarily surpasses the revenue generated by Bitcoin mining through hash collisions. The difference in marginal returns shapes price and capital allocation. Don't believe it? Go see how many Bitcoin mining facilities have been converted into AI compute centers.
Capital is opportunistic and sensitive. When the growth curve of silicon-based intelligence steepens faster than the scarcity curve of "digital reserves," global surplus liquidity will flow preferentially to productive assets with nonlinear growth potential, rather than purely digital assets.
2. Gold's "Atomic Properties" vs. Bitcoin's "Code Consensus"
This year, gold's strong performance is fundamentally the result of global geopolitical entropy increase.
Facing deglobalization and systemic uncertainty, sovereign-level players need an asset that does not require network connectivity and does not depend on any clearing system. Under this extreme anti-fragility logic, ancient gold offers atomic-level certainty.
Although Bitcoin is hailed as digital gold, it still heavily relies on internet infrastructure and centralized liquidity channels. When the system faces physical disconnection risks, atomic-level certainty temporarily prevails over Bitcoin's consensus, as physical gold can at least be held in hand or stored in a cave.
Gold hedging is a system collapse, while Bitcoin is currently more seen by the market as a liquidity overflow of the system.
3. "Volatility Dulling" Brought by ETF
Tools determine behavior. The proliferation of Bitcoin spot ETFs signifies the taming of this beast.
Once Bitcoin entered traditional asset allocation portfolios, it began to follow the risk management model of traditional finance. While this brought long-term fund support, it also greatly smoothed out its volatility, stifling its explosiveness.
Bitcoin now increasingly resembles a high-beta tech index. As the Fed's maintenance of high interest rates exceeded market expectations, this "long-tail asset," extremely sensitive to liquidity, naturally will be suppressed.
4. The Productivity Singularity's Siphoning of the Bitcoin Narrative
Charlie Munger emphasizes opportunity cost.
If holding AI-leading companies with monopolistic positions can achieve high certainty of nonlinear growth, then holding Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow, incurs a very high opportunity cost.
2025 is the eve of one of the rare productivity singularities in human history, where all capital is chasing the node that might birth superintelligence. Bitcoin, as a "challenger to the monetary system," has had its appeal diluted in the face of the productivity revolution narrative in the short term.
5. Phase Transition in Fractal Structures
From the perspective of complex systems, the U.S. stock market is in an AI-driven parabolic acceleration phase.
In fractal geometry, tiny structures replicate and magnify themselves through simple iterative formulas. AI is playing this iterative operator role. From the foundational Nvidia computing power, to the middle layer of cloud services, all the way to the top layer of software applications, each layer is replicating the logic of "productivity explosion." This structure is grandiose, but it also means the system is approaching the physical limits of that local dimension.
The performance of gold in the collapse of the old order can be understood through the construction process of the Cantor Set, continuously removing one-third of the middle. In the current global financial fractal, what is being removed is "credit expansion," "unrealizable commitments," and "high-entropy debt."
As the old order is continually shattered by debt crises and geopolitical turmoil, the final group of disconnected yet indestructible points remaining is gold. This is a value density created by "subtraction," the most stable physical bottom layer in the fractal structure.
The current state of Bitcoin is essentially the result of a hedging of forces at different scales: the profit-taking sell pressure from early participants, counteracted over time by the continuous buying from sovereign states and long-term holders, compressing the price into a long-term low volatility range.
This prolonged period of low-volatility oscillation is dynamically known as a reorganization of the "Attractor."
This fractal system, accumulating over time, paves the way for the next scale transformation.
Ultimately, the Bitcoin of 2025 is not falsified but repriced. It momentarily yields at the ends of the productivity singularity and geopolitical defense demand, bearing the cost of time rather than direction.
Only when AI's marginal efficiency declines and liquidity overflow continues will Bitcoin return to its true forte as a cross-cycle liquidity value carrier.
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Before using Musk's "Western WeChat" X Chat, you need to understand these three questions
The X Chat will be available for download on the App Store this Friday. The media has already covered the feature list, including self-destructing messages, screenshot prevention, 481-person group chats, Grok integration, and registration without a phone number, positioning it as the "Western WeChat." However, there are three questions that have hardly been addressed in any reports.
There is a sentence on X's official help page that is still hanging there: "If malicious insiders or X itself cause encrypted conversations to be exposed through legal processes, both the sender and receiver will be completely unaware."
No. The difference lies in where the keys are stored.
In Signal's end-to-end encryption, the keys never leave your device. X, the court, or any external party does not hold your keys. Signal's servers have nothing to decrypt your messages; even if they were subpoenaed, they could only provide registration timestamps and last connection times, as evidenced by past subpoena records.
X Chat uses the Juicebox protocol. This solution divides the key into three parts, each stored on three servers operated by X. When recovering the key with a PIN code, the system retrieves these three shards from X's servers and recombines them. No matter how complex the PIN code is, X is the actual custodian of the key, not the user.
This is the technical background of the "help page sentence": because the key is on X's servers, X has the ability to respond to legal processes without the user's knowledge. Signal does not have this capability, not because of policy, but because it simply does not have the key.
The following illustration compares the security mechanisms of Signal, WhatsApp, Telegram, and X Chat along six dimensions. X Chat is the only one of the four where the platform holds the key and the only one without Forward Secrecy.
The significance of Forward Secrecy is that even if a key is compromised at a certain point in time, historical messages cannot be decrypted because each message has a unique key. Signal's Double Ratchet protocol automatically updates the key after each message, a mechanism lacking in X Chat.
After analyzing the X Chat architecture in June 2025, Johns Hopkins University cryptology professor Matthew Green commented, "If we judge XChat as an end-to-end encryption scheme, this seems like a pretty game-over type of vulnerability." He later added, "I would not trust this any more than I trust current unencrypted DMs."
From a September 2025 TechCrunch report to being live in April 2026, this architecture saw no changes.
In a February 9, 2026 tweet, Musk pledged to undergo rigorous security tests of X Chat before its launch on X Chat and to open source all the code.
As of the April 17 launch date, no independent third-party audit has been completed, there is no official code repository on GitHub, the App Store's privacy label reveals X Chat collects five or more categories of data including location, contact info, and search history, directly contradicting the marketing claim of "No Ads, No Trackers."
Not continuous monitoring, but a clear access point.
For every message on X Chat, users can long-press and select "Ask Grok." When this button is clicked, the message is delivered to Grok in plaintext, transitioning from encrypted to unencrypted at this stage.
This design is not a vulnerability but a feature. However, X Chat's privacy policy does not state whether this plaintext data will be used for Grok's model training or if Grok will store this conversation content. By actively clicking "Ask Grok," users are voluntarily removing the encryption protection of that message.
There is also a structural issue: How quickly will this button shift from an "optional feature" to a "default habit"? The higher the quality of Grok's replies, the more frequently users will rely on it, leading to an increase in the proportion of messages flowing out of encryption protection. The actual encryption strength of X Chat, in the long run, depends not only on the design of the Juicebox protocol but also on the frequency of user clicks on "Ask Grok."
X Chat's initial release only supports iOS, with the Android version simply stating "coming soon" without a timeline.
In the global smartphone market, Android holds about 73%, while iOS holds about 27% (IDC/Statista, 2025). Of WhatsApp's 3.14 billion monthly active users, 73% are on Android (according to Demand Sage). In India, WhatsApp covers 854 million users, with over 95% Android penetration. In Brazil, there are 148 million users, with 81% on Android, and in Indonesia, there are 112 million users, with 87% on Android.
WhatsApp's dominance in the global communication market is built on Android. Signal, with a monthly active user base of around 85 million, also relies mainly on privacy-conscious users in Android-dominant countries.
X Chat circumvented this battlefield, with two possible interpretations. One is technical debt; X Chat is built with Rust, and achieving cross-platform support is not easy, so prioritizing iOS may be an engineering constraint. The other is a strategic choice; with iOS holding a market share of nearly 55% in the U.S., X's core user base being in the U.S., prioritizing iOS means focusing on their core user base rather than engaging in direct competition with Android-dominated emerging markets and WhatsApp.
These two interpretations are not mutually exclusive, leading to the same result: X Chat's debut saw it willingly forfeit 73% of the global smartphone user base.
This matter has been described by some: X Chat, along with X Money and Grok, forms a trifecta creating a closed-loop data system parallel to the existing infrastructure, similar in concept to the WeChat ecosystem. This assessment is not new, but with X Chat's launch, it's worth revisiting the schematic.
X Chat generates communication metadata, including information on who is talking to whom, for how long, and how frequently. This data flows into X's identity system. Part of the message content goes through the Ask Grok feature and enters Grok's processing chain. Financial transactions are handled by X Money: external public testing was completed in March, opening to the public in April, enabling fiat peer-to-peer transfers via Visa Direct. A senior Fireblocks executive confirmed plans for cryptocurrency payments to go live by the end of the year, holding money transmitter licenses in over 40 U.S. states currently.
Every WeChat feature operates within China's regulatory framework. Musk's system operates within Western regulatory frameworks, but he also serves as the head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). This is not a WeChat replica; it is a reenactment of the same logic under different political conditions.
The difference is that WeChat has never explicitly claimed to be "end-to-end encrypted" on its main interface, whereas X Chat does. "End-to-end encryption" in user perception means that no one, not even the platform, can see your messages. X Chat's architectural design does not meet this user expectation, but it uses this term.
X Chat consolidates the three data lines of "who this person is, who they are talking to, and where their money comes from and goes to" in one company's hands.
The help page sentence has never been just technical instructions.

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