QCP Capital: Strategy of selling coins combined with macro pressure, Bitcoin fell over 11% weekly

According to QCP Capital's latest market report, Bitcoin has fallen approximately 11.6% this week, continuing to be under pressure. Market sentiment has been affected by the rare news of Strategy selling 32 BTC, although the sale size was only about $2.5 million, which had almost no substantial impact on its holdings of over 840,000 coins. However, it broke the long-standing market expectation of Strategy's "never selling coins," weakening the confidence of some investors.

On a macro level, the situation is also unfavorable. The escalation of the Middle East situation and the stagnation of US-Iran negotiations have driven oil prices up, with the risk premium in the Strait of Hormuz being re-emphasized. Meanwhile, US job vacancy data was stronger than expected, reducing the market's bets on a short-term rate cut by the Federal Reserve and reinforcing the expectation of "higher rates for longer." The options market shows a significant increase in defensive sentiment. The 30-day at-the-money implied volatility (ATM IV) rose to about 41.4%, with a weekly increase of about 7 volatility points. The risk reversal indicator remains biased negative, with a short-term inverted yield curve reflecting strong demand for downside protection in the market.

QCP believes that the current market is not in a panic sell-off but is re-pricing downside risks. Weak spot demand, rising oil prices, increasing real interest rates, and macro uncertainty are collectively suppressing the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, AI concept stocks and large tech companies continue to attract significant capital inflows, further diverting risk appetite from the crypto market. QCP points out that if BTC cannot regain a foothold in the $67,000 to $68,000 range, the rebound may still face significant selling pressure. The current market is more inclined to purchase downside protection rather than actively increase risk exposure, as investors await a clearer direction from the macro environment between the paths of "soft landing" and "high inflation, high interest rates, low liquidity."