The price difference exceeds 50%, and the pre-market arbitrage market for cryptocurrency stocks will become a new business in the crypto bear market

Original | Odaily Planet Daily Wenser

Recently, Mysten Labs CEO evan.sui shared his views on the "bear market". He mentioned that he does not agree with the notion that "the bear market is good, keep building." In fact, the bear market is not "great," and packaging it as beneficial for everyone ignores the real costs (such as discouraging builders and users). Many retail investors and excellent teams will face cash flow disruptions and have to exit, ultimately harming the long-term development of the crypto industry.

However, the data evidence does not align with this viewpoint. A report released by Lattice VC in October 2024 showed that over 80% of crypto startups that announced seed round financing during the 2022 bear market are still in development. In other words, if project teams can ensure relative stability in personnel and funding, the bear market can indeed be more conducive to project construction and development. The reasons may include that during a bear market, project teams focus more on product development and experience optimization; or perhaps the bear market can cultivate various survival skills for project teams. In short, being in a crypto bear market, aspiring project teams might find a way to survive and carve out their own development path.

In light of this, we will explore potential employment tracks and project directions during this cycle through a series of articles titled "Crypto Bear Market Entrepreneurship Guide." If there are indeed crypto projects that emerge and grow rapidly from this, Odaily Planet Daily welcomes project teams to discuss cooperation.

Today, let's first talk about the hottest potential entrepreneurial direction aside from prediction markets------the pre-market price difference market for crypto stocks.

The Real Demand for the Crypto Stock Pre-Market: Platform Differentiation and Liquidity Bridge

As a bridge connecting the crypto market and traditional financial markets, crypto stock trading platforms have not only attracted significant attention and active participation from crypto project teams, but also global leading securities platforms, including Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange, have entered the fray, aiming to capture the incremental market while further activating liquidity in traditional financial markets.

Moreover, not only have listed crypto concept stocks welcomed stock tokenization and on-chain contract transformation, many popular concept stocks that have not yet gone public have also received enthusiastic support from both the crypto market and traditional financial markets, leading to the emergence of numerous pre-market stock tokenization trading platforms.

Considering that this year the capital market is about to welcome a series of IPOs for AI model companies, commercial space companies, prediction market platforms, and crypto exchanges such as OpenAI, Anthropic, SpaceX (xAI), Kalshi, Polymarket, OKX, and Kraken, it is undoubtedly clear that 2026 is destined to be a "big year for IPOs."

Against the backdrop of the crypto market fluctuating with occasional rebounds and the stock market rising steadily, the heat of the stock pre-market trading market further supports the above viewpoint------there is strong demand for pre-market trading of popular concept stocks in both the crypto market and traditional financial markets.

This is the primary reason why stock pre-market trading platforms such as PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera have emerged. Additionally, compared to traditional financial markets' pre-market trading platforms like Hiive and Nasdaq Private Market, the trading methods, purchase limits, and entry thresholds in the crypto pre-market trading market are more flexible, and the premiums are relatively higher, which has led to enthusiastic participation from many users.

However, just as the same token can have different price differences across different exchanges, before the introduction of mechanisms similar to oracles in the stock pre-market, regardless of the reasons, we can clearly see that there are certain price differences in the pricing of the same underlying stock across different platforms mentioned above.

Based on the above information, we can somewhat boldly make a judgment------the crypto market still lacks one or more "bridge platforms between stock pre-market trading markets."

This may be a necessary step in advancing stock tokenization and stock pre-market market tokenization------a unified comprehensive platform covering pre-market trading in traditional financial markets and pre-market trading in the crypto market.

Next, we will take the two leading prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, which are seeking $20 billion in financing, as well as SpaceX (xAI), which has a valuation of up to $1.25 trillion, as examples to explore the feasibility and real demand of this "entrepreneurial direction."

Comparing PreStocks, Jarsy, and Tessera's Pre-Market Price Differences: Maximum Price Difference Rate Exceeds 50%, Prices Differ by Nearly $150

Kalshi Pre-Market Price Difference: Up to $148, Price Difference Rate Around 37%

Taking the Kalshi pre-market trading market as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows------

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is around $397; (compared to the $369 mentioned in our article "Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break New Highs, What is a Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?"** a month ago, it has increased by nearly $30, a rise of 7.6%）**

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price of the stock is around $545. (compared to the $504 mentioned in our article "Kalshi Trading Volume Continues to Break New Highs, What is a Reasonable Pre-Market Stock Price?"** a month ago, it has increased by over $40, a rise of 8.1%）**

In other words, the pre-market price of Kalshi stock has a price difference of up to $148 between the two trading platforms （Odaily Planet Daily note: Considering that the two platforms adopt order book trading mechanisms and on-chain liquidity token trading mechanisms respectively, we are only making an abstract comparison here, without involving specific asset transfer forms, the same applies below）. If calculated based on the $360 price of the pre-market trading platform Hiive in the traditional financial market, the price difference could even reach $185.

Polymarket Pre-Market Price Difference: Up to $94, Price Difference Rate Exceeds 50%

Taking the Polymarket pre-market trading market as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows------

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is around $186 (Odaily Planet Daily note: the increase over the past 30 days is 23%);

On the Jarsy platform, the pre-market price of the stock is around $280.

In other words, the price difference for Polymarket stock in the two major platforms is around $94, with a price difference rate of about 50.5%.

SpaceX (xAI) Pre-Market Price Difference: About $75, Price Difference Rate 12.7%

Taking SpaceX (xAI) as an example, its prices on different platforms are as follows------

On the PreStocks platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is around $666 (Odaily Planet Daily note: the increase over the past 30 days is 4.1%);

On the Tessera platform, the pre-market price of the stock token is currently reported at around $591 (Odaily Planet Daily note: the increase over the past 30 days is about 14.5%).

In other words, the price difference for SpaceX stock in the two major platforms is around $75, with a price difference rate of about 12.7%.

In summary, based on the existing pre-market trading platforms, it may be possible to build a crypto stock pre-market price difference market, which, after having sufficient pre-market tokens or pre-market equity capital, can meet the market's trading and speculation needs.

Of course, considering that the current market liquidity is still within the million-dollar range, the main business model of this platform may remain in transaction fees or LP fees, as well as the realization of price differences in the platform's own investment quotas.