The probability of "The U.S. Department of Homeland Security closure lasting more than 60 days" on Polymarket has risen to 75%, increasing by 37% in 24 hours

By: rootdata|2026/03/28 13:42:00

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a temporary Homeland Security funding bill aimed at ending the government shutdown and has sent it to the Senate.

Polymarket's probability of "the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 48 days" has risen to 92%, up 31% in 24 hours; the probability of "the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 52 days" has risen to 54%, up 12% in 24 hours; the probability of "the U.S. Department of Homeland Security shutdown lasting more than 60 days" has risen to 75%, up 37% in 24 hours. As of now, the trading volume for this event contract has exceeded $1.1 million. It is reported that the bill provides funding for each agency under the Department of Homeland Security at current levels until May 22, which is the latest attempt to end the partial government shutdown that began on February 14. The bill passed the House with 213 votes in favor and 203 votes against, with three Democratic representatives voting in favor, the rest being Republican representatives. Nevertheless, the bill is expected to fail in the Senate, potentially prolonging the deadlock over the partial government shutdown. Before passing the House version of the funding agreement, they rejected the Senate version of the agreement. U.S. House Speaker Johnson stated that Republicans will not participate in any measures to reopen the border or halt immigration enforcement.

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