The U.S. bond market is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%

According to Jinshi reports, as the situation in the Middle East drives up oil prices, traders in the U.S. Treasury market are closely monitoring this week's Federal Reserve meeting to assess officials' views on the inflation outlook. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates on Wednesday, but traders tend to believe that there will still be rate cuts before the end of the year. Swap market data shows that the probability of a rate cut before the end of the year has risen to around 40%. Traders will listen carefully to Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference to gather insights on his plans after his term ends in May next year. Meanwhile, a series of U.S. Treasury auctions will also take place this week to test market demand at the current yield levels.