Wintermute: By 2026, crypto had gradually become the settlement layer of the Internet economy

By: blockbeats|2026/02/05 23:00:00

Original Title: Digital assets in 2026: The clearing layer for the internet economy

Original Source: Wintermute Ventures

Original Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Introduction: For decades, the internet has enabled information to flow freely across borders, platforms, and systems. However, value has lagged behind. Money, assets, and financial protocols still flow through fragmented infrastructure built on traditional rails, national boundaries, and rent-seeking intermediaries at each node. Wintermute Ventures believes this gap is rapidly closing at an unprecedented pace, with crypto becoming the clearing and settlement layer long needed by the internet economy.

The report focuses on five key themes: Everything is Tradable (prediction markets, tokenization), Stablecoin Interoperability, Tokenomics returning to fundamentals, DeFi merging with TradFi, and Privacy becoming a regulatory driver. Infrastructure maturity is the common thread of this transformation.

Full Text:

For decades, the internet has allowed information to flow freely across borders, platforms, and systems. However, value has lagged behind. Money, assets, and financial protocols still flow through fragmented infrastructure built on traditional rails, national boundaries, and rent-seeking intermediaries at each node.

This gap is rapidly closing at an unprecedented pace. This has created an opportunity for infrastructure companies directly replacing traditional clearing, settlement, and custody functions. Infrastructure that enables value to flow as freely as information is no longer theoretical. It is being built, deployed, and massively utilized.

For years, crypto has existed on-chain but disconnected from the real economy. This is changing. Crypto is becoming the clearing and settlement layer long needed by the internet economy; an operational, transparent, and decentralized layer free of gatekeepers' permission.

The following themes represent the direction we believe digital assets will take in 2026 and are areas Wintermute Ventures actively supports founders in.

1. Everything is Tradable

More and more assets and real-world outcomes are becoming tradable through new financial primitives, including prediction markets, tokenization, and derivatives. This transformation provides a liquidity layer for domains that historically had no market.

Tokenization and synthetic assets bring liquidity to known assets. Prediction markets further price things that were previously unpriceable, turning raw information into tradable instruments.

Prediction markets continue to expand, serving both as consumer products and as new financial instruments enabling hedging, outcome-linked trades, and views on granular events. They are also beginning to replace parts of traditional financial infrastructure.

Insurance is a notable example: outcome-based markets can offer cheaper and more flexible hedging than traditional insurance or reinsurance by pricing specific risks directly rather than bundling them into broad products. Users can hedge specific wind speeds at specific locations during specific time frames rather than buying hurricane insurance covering a region. Over longer time horizons, these specific risks can be manually curated by agent workflows and bundled into individuals' unique needs.

As prediction market infrastructure scales, entirely new categories of data products have emerged around formerly unpriced topics. We anticipate markets designed to trade and quantify objective perceptions, sentiments, and collective opinions. These emerging markets are a natural extension of decentralized finance, unlocking new ways to price and exchange information itself. As everything becomes tradable, the infrastructure providing liquidity, enabling price discovery, and ensuring settlement becomes crucial.

This structural shift will concentrate value at the infrastructure layer, directly impacting how we allocate capital. We are actively supporting teams building core market and settlement infrastructure, data layers for validation and attestation, and new data products supporting the securitization of previously untradable outcomes. We are also focused on novel abstract models making these markets programmable and composable, embedding them into real-world workflows and replacing parts of traditional financial and insurance infrastructure.

2. Stablecoins as a Trust Layer, with Banks Handling Intermediation

Digital assets lack robust settlement banks and clearinghouse equivalents that grease the wheels of traditional finance. Stablecoins achieve open access and programmable value, but without settlement infrastructure, fragmentation introduces adoption-limiting friction.

As stablecoin issuers proliferate across different ecosystems with varying collateral models, the need for interoperability layers capable of reliably composing these assets is growing. To scale this system, crypto needs infrastructure capable of achieving net settlement, conversions, and finality across stablecoins and chains without introducing additional credit risk, liquidity risk, or operational overhead.

The missing abstraction is addressed by asset-backed interoperability shifting conversion and credit risk to stablecoin issuers based on their balance sheets, instead of forcing end-users to manage FX, routing, or counterparty risks in cross-stablecoin trades. We view this as the on-chain equivalent of correspondent banking, settling in seconds, offering open access to application builders, and expect to see more companies positioning themselves as coordinators between issuers and applications.

3. The Market Will Reward Long-Term Revenue over Short-Term Incentives

Tokens with unsustainable business models driving growth are becoming less effective. Companies relying on subsidizing users or liquidity providers while operating a fragile revenue model will find it harder to compete.

Valuations will be more closely anchored to sustainable earnings and forward-looking projections, converging towards a cash flow-based framework. The short-term, volatile monthly fee run rates annualized will no longer be a trusted way to price a company, as revenue quality and incentive alignment become core to valuation. Tokens without a credible value-capture path will struggle to sustain demand beyond speculative phases.

As a result, fewer companies will launch a token at inception. Many will default to an equity-first structure, using blockchain primarily as a backend infrastructure invisible to users and investors. When tokens are used, issuance will increasingly only occur post clear product-market fit, proven revenue, unit economics, and stakeholder incentives alignment.

We see this shift as a beneficial and necessary evolution for the ecosystem as a whole. Founders can focus on building enduring businesses without prematurely prioritizing token incentives and demand. Investors can evaluate companies using familiar financial frameworks. Users get products designed for long-term value.

4. The Convergence of DeFi and Fintech

The future of finance is not DeFi or TradFi: it is the convergence of both. A dual-track architecture allows fintech applications to dynamically route transactions based on cost, speed, and yield. Groundbreaking consumer applications will resemble traditional fintech products, with wallets, bridges, and chains abstracted away. Capital efficiency, yield, settlement speed, and transparent execution define the next generation of financial products.

While the user experience merges with fintech, the industry continues to expand rapidly behind the scenes. Tokenization and highly composable financial primitives drive this growth, enabling deeper liquidity and more complex financial products.

Distribution will be more critical than owning the interface. Winning teams will build backend-first infrastructure, plugging into existing platforms and channels rather than competing as standalone apps. Personalization and automation (increasingly AI-enhanced) will enhance pricing, routing, and yield in the background. Users will not consciously choose DeFi. They will choose products that are easier to use.

5. Privacy Becomes a Regulatory Driver

Privacy is becoming the foundation for institutional adoption, shifting from a regulatory burden to a regulatory driver. Selective disclosure using zero-knowledge proofs and multi-party computation allows participants to prove compliance without exposing raw data.

In practice, this enables banks to assess credit worthiness without accessing transaction history, allows employers to verify employment without revealing salary, and enables institutions to prove reserves without disclosing positions. The tangible realization of this vision is a world where businesses no longer need to store vast amounts of data, freeing themselves from costly and burdensome data privacy regulations. New primitives such as private sharing states, zkTLS, and MPC unlock undercollateralized loans, layering, and new on-chain risk products, shifting the entire category of structured finance onto the chain, which was previously infeasible.

6. Regulation Shifts from Compliance Hurdle to Distribution Advantage

Regulatory clarity has shifted from adversarial hurdles to standardized distribution channels. While the early "permissionless" nature of DeFi remains a key innovation engine, the arrival of frameworks such as the GENIUS Act in the U.S., MiCA in Europe, and the stablecoin regime in Hong Kong has provided greater clarity for traditional institutions. By 2026, the story is no longer about whether institutions can use blockchain but how they use these guidelines to replace traditional channels for high-speed on-chain rails.

These standards will catalyze a larger wave of compliant on-chain products, regulated fiat on/off ramps, and institutional-grade infrastructure, all without mandating full centralization, thus increasing institutional participation.

Regions that combine clear rules with quick approvals will increasingly attract capital, talent, and experimentation, accelerating the normalization of on-chain value allocation in native crypto and hybrid financial products, while slower regimes fall behind.

The Internet Economy on Crypto

Infrastructure maturity is the common thread of this transformation. Crypto is becoming the settlement and clearing layer of the internet economy, allowing value to flow as freely as information. The protocols, primitives, and applications being built today are unlocking new forms of real economic activity and expanding the realm of what is possible on the internet.

At Wintermute Ventures, we support the founders building this infrastructure. We look for teams that combine deep technical understanding with strong product thinking. Teams that release solutions people truly want to use. Teams that can operate within regulatory frameworks while advancing core principles of decentralized systems. Teams building businesses designed for lasting impact.

2026 will mark an inflection point. Crypto infrastructure will increasingly fade into the background for users while becoming the foundation of the global financial system. The best infrastructure quietly empowers people without needing to draw attention.

Original Article Link

Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:

To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:

Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:

I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities

(I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.

The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.

A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.

（II）Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.

Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.

II. Sound Work Mechanism

(III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.

(IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal

(5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.

(6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.

(7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.

(8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.

（IX） Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.

（X） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.

（XI） Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.

（XII） Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.

IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities

（XIII） Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.

（XIV） Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.

(15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.

V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation

(16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.

(17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.

VI. Legal Responsibility

(18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.

(19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.

This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.

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